Question about turnovers (especially with Sixth's turnover system)

[cincy_]

I understand the logic of the turnover system - that a team won't continue turning the ball over or won't keep getting turnovers ...

... but after we had reknowned fumblers in Tiki Barber and Ahman Green help their teams lose SU and ATS this week, I wonder how much that theory still holds and where we would allow for exceptions. I know it is working for the Vikings as they're not getting all the free passes like they were used to getting, but some players/teams/systems are simply prone to turnovers, aren't they?

Do you take this into account, Sixth? I mean, are we going to give the turnover edge to GB because Green has 5 fumbles in the last 3 games? Are we going to say Tiki Barber won't fumble next game or are we going to say that Tiki won't get the ball in the redzone next week?

There have to be exceptions to the rule, no?

 

[SixthSense]

Cincy - There are no exceptions. As a matter of fact, and I don't have the numbers in front of me without doing some work, but almost all teams that are negative in the fumble category halfway through the season, end up positive in the ats column during the second half of the season.

I should point out I'm talking about the worse of the worse teams in the fumble category half way through the season. Again, I would have to go back and dig it up and research it again, but, trust me, these teams rebound.

The year the Packers acquired Green, he had fumbling problems and Sherman guaranteed those problems would get fixed the rest of the season. They did. Will they this year? I don't know but I can tell you you are bucking a serious, serious situation if you continue to expect these teams to turn the ball over and the other teams to continue to get the turnovers.

Jacksonville has been a classic example of this. They have won most of their games, from a yards per play perspective, but lost the game because of turnovers. Last week they were even in turnovers, and presto, they won the game SU.

Teams make changes to avoid continuing to turn the ball over and it will happen again this year.

And know that last week Atlanta was a turnover play and the GB/Philly game was not a turnover play. So, it actually worked out just like it was supposed to last week with the Atlanta game. They finally got the turnovers to go their way and they won SU.

 

[winbet]

Nice reply Sixth but what happens to Atlanta this Week. Do they carry this on or go back to their old ways.

 

[SixthSense]

These teams tend to be more focused coming off a loss than a win. They got their win so they may go back to their usual careless ball protection, or they may have learned something from the past, and will continue to protect the ball.

I think teams coming off a loss are easier to predict.

 

[BigDaddyNole]

6th Sense: I'm always interested in reading up on system plays .... do you have a post/thread with this info on it?
would love to see it

thanks in advance

Bump^

[This message was edited by BigDaddyNole on November 13, 2003 at 10:58 AM.]